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Aug 9, 2022Liked by Joshua Pressman Jacobs

I hope people realize the consequences of not doing something to turn the tide. Our democracy is fragile. Once lost it is not easily recovered.

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founding
Aug 9, 2022Liked by Joshua Pressman Jacobs

Josh, as you know I am older (almost 74) and Catholic. My views on abortion are not important. You mentioned several times your respect for others ideas and beliefs. That is what is important. I do not think anyone has the right to tell others how to live or what they can or cannot do with their bodies. I wonder if people realize what a frightening time this is for our democracy. I know that you realize this but others that I talk to don't seem to get it.

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author

Hopefully enough people are paying attention to turn the tide.

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Aug 8, 2022Liked by Joshua Pressman Jacobs

Tangent:

Re: "moral issue voters"...

I'd assert that the most intense liberals also think of their commitment as driven by moral issues, even if they don't word it that way.

And I'd assert that both sides of those moral issue voters have a large degree of "faith" and "don't you dare question the core premises" elements way down deep, driving expression of their beliefs - both religious people and "super liberals" will lose face in their community if they don't tow the line hard enough.

(In other words - for the most intense liberals, their mindset is ALSO actually very close to "religious".)

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Very salient point! And I might add, until "abortion policy" took front and center stage in American politics, I would say the American left was in tremendous danger of having their candidates (and even the ones they merely tolerated) lose and lose badly at the ballot box.

But, now their is renewed interest in putting the GOP in check.

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Aug 9, 2022·edited Aug 9, 2022Liked by Joshua Pressman Jacobs

Well, except...

There's time between now and November 2022, and especially between now and November 2024, for the pendulum to swing again. And history would say we Never Trumpers of one fashion or another would do well not to count our chickens before they hatch.

First, for decades, Democratic strategy has counted on people of color swinging their way, and it's turning out not to be true to nearly the degree all that planning assumed. Non-ultra-right-wingers don't have the safety margin we hoped for. And that's a big deal.

And yes, women are currently energized to see "the right's" overreach.

But second... the "reactionary" angle of conservatism thrives under conditions of chaos, uncertainty, and unrest... and god knows we're probably going to have a bit of that, some chunk of it even fomented by liberals. The funny thing is liberals often use the example of King and Rustin as their proof that protest works, but then they try to "one up" Rustin and King, the key assumption being that more provocative and more confrontational is more effective - but that's a gross misunderstanding of the mechanics for why King's/Rustin's (and before them, A. Philip Randolph's) protests worked, and actually changed minds. And the exact mechanics, especially of the nuance of Rustin's planning, and what he was trying (and often succeeding) to pull off... reveals some "dark underbelly" of the human mind that we don't want to admit is true. So instead some people burn, smash, and grafitti. And I'd say that hot mess (and backlash) benefits reactionaries more in the long run than progressives. (Somehow those who pooh-pooh and mock respectability politics repeatedly being proven wrong never seems to sink into their thick skulls, they just want to escalate, escalate, escalate to the highest level of drama possible.)

Third... mainstream media is profit driven, and profit driven media is conflict driven, and Trump and his people know how to say crazy things to make the Twitter-sphere go crazy, and from there there's that psychological phenomenon where massive exposure makes something more familiar and therefore more acceptable, even after the initial assessment is negative... Trump still has that trick up his sleeve... and he'll play it again. His favorable ratings will go up. And I noticed another thing he did in 2016 that would take too long to explain now, but I'd bet he'd do the same in 2024.

And fourth... didn't Biden hint 3 years ago he'd only chase one term due to age?... and now he's dangling that he'll probably run. WTF, Joe? A scenario in this ballpark has played out poorly for the party with the Presidency many times, and Joe is playing with torpedoing non-idiot chances of winning.

Add in the "off-year not friendly to the party of the President" factor...

MAYBE the abortion overreach by conservatives has given Democrats a boost that offset a bunch of all that above... but Democrats resting on those laurels (i.e. "Kansas", and the conversations within their own peer group) I would say is ridiculous overconfidence.

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obviously there is a lot at play. I mean Trump's Mar-a-Lago home as just raided. Initial reports I'm reading is that the FBI better be pretty confident they are able to find some real damning evidence, otherwise they just super-charged the crazies around Trump. (they still did...but still).

As for Midterms, we will see how it looks after Labor Day. For August being such a sleepy month, a lot has seemed to happen.

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Aug 8, 2022·edited Aug 8, 2022Liked by Joshua Pressman Jacobs

Certainty...

There is some spectrum of certainty the human mind wants and needs... and if the "whole world as it's going" doesn't provide enough certainty, some minds will latch onto dogma from either the left or the right - what's right and wrong all seems so simple and clear and morally/righteously satisfying as each side presents it.

Plain and simple... nothing except heroin gives a bigger dopamine rush than morally based righteous indignation.

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