Final Thoughts on this Presidential Race
94) Politics has been dominated by Trump over this last Decade. Will it continue or finally stop?
On this morning of Election 2024, Tuesday November 5, it’s incredible how far we have come.
From the June debacle known as the debate between Biden and Trump, to the attempted assassination on Trump at a rally in Butler PA, to the passing of the baton to Kamala Harris to being the Democratic Nominee.
It has been a wild ride, and one that has me questioning how politics in our country has become so morally bankrupt1.
The political ecosystem in this country has been cultivating and nourishing “shock” and “awe” reactions for the last number of decades. There are numerous reasons for this outcome, some of which I dove a bit into in my analysis on Matt Taibbi’s book Hate Inc. “Why today’s media makes us despise one another2.
Here are eight of my final thoughts on this 2024 political horse-race.
1. Women are registering to vote in record numbers:
Abortion is still an issue that galvanizes a lot of people. You wouldn’t notice it in a State like NY (where I reside) as a woman’s right to choose appears to be safe for the foreseeable future3. Early numbers coming in also show that Trump’s approval rating among women is badly under-water. I would like to see the final numbers on this to better understand the results.
2. Follow the money:
Some people say this is an overrated factor. That even though Harris’s camp is outraising Trump, that Trump is getting so much free-press from his outlandishness, that there is almost too much money being allocated, that creates diminishing returns. This is entirely possible. But, nobody says NO to money. Sadly, money in politics is actually the most corrosive part of politics. It is how the money gets slushed around that creates the most disillusionment among voters.
When the “billionaire class” influences both Democrats and Republicans to great effect, it’s really hard to discern who are really the good guys and who isn’t, in all this4.
3. How we consume media:
The most powerful movie/documentary I ever saw displaying our dystopian future and how we consume media is The Social Dilemma. It is a film that is equally disturbing and fascinating, and honestly makes it hard for me to stay fully optimistic about the future of our politics and government in America5.
As for how we all consume media, it’s truly something to study and marvel at. The aforementioned documentary crystalizes the divisions sparked, yet our social circles also tremendously influence our thinking on politics.
We naturally gravitate towards people whose world-view is similar to ours. Yet, we also are shaped by those people. The influence in which we think about politics is like a magic lock box, that everyone is trying to manipulate for their own personal benefit.
BTW - I think Joe Rogan’s endorsement of Trump the very day before the election, will impact things so much as it ensures Rogan’s access to Elon Musk much in the same way Jeff Bezos and his Washington Post newspaper failed to endorse Harris, to ensure Bezos’ access to Trump.
4. The Polls:
Is polling in America fundamentally broken6? Is there a re-shuffling happening7? Is there a great conspiracy to continue to call this race a toss-up to keep people wanting to continue to consume media?
There appears to be no shy Trump voters left. So maybe the polls have fully captured his ceiling (finally)?
People's memories are bad. Therefore if you claim you voted for Biden in 2020, but actually voted for Trump, but are telling pollsters differently, this actually is to Harris’s benefit. Why? Well it shows that Trump really didn’t gain ground in the polls among Democrats despite some of the misleading headlines.
If there is even a hint of a landslide, I think it will be in Harris’ favor.
5. Too close to call!
The last true landslide election was in 1984. Since 1988 we have had a rather closely divided electorate. The aftermath of the 2000 election appears to have created the most partisan fervor our country has seen, and the fever just seems to grow more and more with every passing election.
Just like all the experts say, this Election is going to come down to approximately seven States.
Every indicator shows that when an election is on the margins the GOTV - “Get out the Vote” Operation can often prove decisive. I know Harris’s grassroots campaign had signs of hiccups in the Philadelphia area in early October, but Trump’s camp appears to be a mess.
Don’t be fooled by the bombast and media and all that stuff. Organizers in the trenches that knock on doors and call homes, often make such a BIG DIFFERENCE!
6. Kamala Harris:
In a lot of ways she is viewed as an incredibly flawed candidate. Let's be real though, this is in large part because she’s a woman. That’s first and foremost. Her being of mixed-race, Black and Indian is also a factor, but she has largely muted that. Also, while I realize this is a taboo topic (especially from someone who is white like me), but, Harris also has been a beneficiary of colorism throughout her whole professional life.
I don’t really think I need to write more on Harris as many people have lots of opinions about her, much of which is frequently quite negative. I would say that when she was initially Biden’s pick for VP Nominee in 2020, I was rather under-whelmed8.
And how the process played out with Biden stepping aside, leaves a number of questions to be had. But, at the same time, the #2 in any organization is supposed to slide into the Top seat whenever called upon. There is nothing strange about that.
Also, would another female candidate such as Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, struggle in the way that Harris has? It certainly would have looked somewhat different. But still, misogyny runs incredibly deep in many cultures and countries, not just America.
7. Donald Trump:
What’s there to say other than, he’s been a constant presence in American politics since 2015. He’s a TV show that either is about to get canceled, or is going to have a whole new unfettered, four year lease.
For the record, I do not equate Trump with Hitler. That is a bit extreme. But, Trump certainly shows quite a few fascist tendencies.
Fascist (definition) - a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition.
Also, whether the Hitler analogy was fair or not, it’s quite telling when a candidate’s wife needs to repudiate those comparisons. It shows it was sticking, which is quite damning. In elections past, it wouldn’t even be acknowledged as the claim would be so outlandish.
My oh my, how times have changed!
BTW - I have yet to see the Apprentice movie, about Trump, but I am wildly curious to check it out.
7) Vibes!!!
Yes, it's corny to say this. And no, I’m not necessarily talking about the vibes Tim Walz brought to the Harris ticket. But, rather I’m talking about the attitudes of Harris supporters compared to Trump supporters.
There’s such an angry arrogance about Trump supporters, that I find incredibly alarming. But, I also find it to be incredibly telling. As the Biblical Proverb 16:18 states “Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall”.
There’s also something incredibly underrated about Kamala Harris. Much like how everyone underrated Trump in 2016, and even in 2020.
8) The sobering reality of it all!
However, to a much larger point about America’s long-term outlook, the whiplash from these elections (dating back to even the year 2000) has actually weakened our country. No matter who wins, America’s strength and character is going to still be under constant attack. Sadly, most of this will be from within.
This constant reminder of our divisions being accentuated, instead of our collective values being celebrated is one of the great tragedies those of us paying attention, will have to endure. I pray that the transition to our next President, no matter who it will be, shall remain peaceful, open and free.
And with that, I wish you all well on this election day and the ensuing weeks and months that follow.
-JPJ
Freddie deBoer raised an amazing point in his last piece where he said “This policy of Democrats acting like they’re sorry for having an agenda at all, building a party identity of self-loathing, has been the dominant one during my lifetime, and it’s demonstrably a failure. The Republicans are a despicable party, but they are a political party. The Democrats are an anti-party”
We live in a society that fetishizes billionaires. It’s that simple. Unfortunately any conversation around billionaires and their extraordinary wealth, and how it is a misallocation of the world’s resources gets a person labeled a communist. Despite the fact that Democrats are often considered to be Communists, even as Billionaires prop up the Democratic Party almost as much as they prop up the Republican Party.
Ezra Klein podcast - On the cusp of a new political order?
2020 was truly a strange election cycle given how it was during the heart of the pandemic. Time and place plays such a role in life. Factors that lead to Biden being the nominee and Harris being his running mate are actually quite interesting. Here’s a piece from that time frame discussing my thinking on the State of the Democratic Party shortly after Harris was picked for VP.
Always good to hear from you. I did see the Trump movie, extremely interesting. My husband and I thought it was too bad that the movie was not shown on any mainstream TV channel.