The First Round of the 2025 NBA PLAYOFFS Starts today!!!
(C3) More context for my original picks, along with some (semi) Hot Takes!
For the record, not to give away the whole story line, but I’m picking the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA Championship over the Boston Celtics.
Granted the Celtics are the defending Champs, and they just might be too good for any of these teams. But at the very least, I feel very confident in predicting this Finals matchup!
Officially, I selected the winner in these play-in games 3 out of 6 times. But I also selected the loser of the play-in games correctly 4 out of 6 times. So, how you calculate that is anyone’s guess.
To recap, I was right about the Warriors beating the Grizzlies in the play-in. I was also right about the Orlando Magic beating the Hawks in the play-in. I was also correct in picking the Mavs over the Kings in the right to advance in the play-in, and faceoff against the Grizzlies.
However, I probably underestimated the bad karma on the Mavs as they bowed out against the Grizzlies in the final play-in game of 2025.
As for the other play-in game I got wrong; I think I put too much stock in the fact that the Bulls beat the Lakers on a flukey half-court shot a few weeks ago.
The Bulls also erased a 5-point deficit in less than 10 seconds, that was eerily reminiscent of when Reggie Miller and the Pacers ripped the hearts out of the Knicks in the playoffs in 1995.
But Heat culture is just too strong! They beat the Bulls handily the other night, and they won last night against Atlanta, too. I still should still get credit for the Hawks losing both their play-in games, as I so aptly predicted.
As for my predictions about this year’s first round matchups, here is some more context for those picks.
The #1 and #2 seeds in the Eastern Conference the Cavs and Celtics will advance to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, with relative ease.
The Knicks are the 3 seed. If they get bounced out by the 6th seeded Pistons in the first round, it’s possible it’s a blessing in disguise as Thibs is the HC of the Knicks, and his Coaching of this team is under serious scrutiny.
Why the Knicks offense seems so average with so much firepower, and why Thibs never develops his bench wherever he is the Coach are two of the biggest reasons why he might get a pink slip at the end of this season.
I made all my original 2025 picks in this posting right here:
The Bucks v Pacers should be interesting, as some are arguing this might be Giannis’s last season with the Bucks’. If he were to be traded in the off-season, that would be almost as big as Luka going to the Lakers.
Bottom line is, the Eastern Conference is not nearly as interesting as the competition in the Western Conference. Celtics and Cavs are on a collision course for the Eastern Conference Finals, unless something really dramatic happens.
In the West, the only team that you could argue has over a 90% chance of advancing to the 2nd round is the #1 Seed, OKC Thunder. Every other series is a real dogfight.
Lakers v T-Wolves is intriguing, by the fact that it’s the Lakers and the T-Wolves still have Ant-Man! I still like the Lakers, but this is going to be one heck of a series.
Nuggets v. Clippers is such a classic matchup, that somehow, I feel like it is underrated. I know I picked the Nuggets, but I honestly have no idea how this thing will play out.
The matchup that I think is really going to catch everyone by surprise is between the 2 seeded “Rockets” vs the 7 seeded “Warriors”.
I know everyone and their mamma is picking the Warriors. But I just can’t sleep on these Rockets. They are so well-coached. And Ime Udoka getting his revenge on the Warriors for the 2022 finals loss, just feels so appealing to me. In an oddly reassuring way, I almost feel more confident in my Rockets pick than I feel in a lot of my other picks.
When we get to the Semi-Finals, I’ll revisit my picks and see how I did. For now, it’s going to be fun having so many basketball games all at once, with as many as four marquee games per day.
Until next time,
-JPJ